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Betting math, probability theory, and strategy for sharp bettors
Negative Binomial Match Prediction: When Poisson Isn't Enough
Why some sports need an overdispersed scoring model — and how the Negative Binomial distribution captures blowouts that Poisson misses.
Poisson Match Prediction: Modeling Scorelines, Spreads, and Totals
How to use Poisson distributions to model match outcomes — generating scoreline probabilities, moneyline odds, spread prices, and totals.
Player Prop Simulation: Monte Carlo Methods for Sports Betting
How Monte Carlo simulation models player prop outcomes using sport-specific distributions — Poisson for counts, lognormal for yardage, and more.
Regression to the Mean: Why Small Samples Lie in Sports Betting
How Bayesian shrinkage corrects small-sample player stats toward true talent — and why it matters for props and projections.
Teaser EV: When Buying Points Is Worth It
How to calculate cover probabilities and expected value for football teasers using CDF analysis, and why key numbers matter.
Finding Middles: When Two Books Give You a Free Shot
How to calculate the probability and expected value of landing in the middle when you hold opposite positions at different numbers.
Alternate Line Pricing: Fair Odds for Every Spread and Total
How to generate fair prices for alternate spreads and totals from a single market line using probability distributions.
Better Line: Using CDF Analysis to Compare Betting Lines
How to use cumulative distribution functions to determine which of two lines has less embedded vig — and find the sharper price.
Bankroll Management Beyond Kelly: Hedging and Risk of Ruin
When to hedge an existing bet to lock in profit, and how to estimate your probability of going broke with Monte Carlo simulation.
Measuring Your Edge: Expected Value and Closing Line Value
Two essential metrics for evaluating your betting performance — how to calculate EV for any bet and why CLV is the best predictor of long-term profit.
Hold, Vig, and Arbitrage: Understanding the Book's Edge
How sportsbooks make money through hold and vig, how to compare lines across books, and how to find guaranteed-profit arbitrage opportunities.
Understanding Betting Odds: Formats, Conversion, and Parlays
A complete guide to American, decimal, and fractional odds — how to convert between them, extract implied probabilities, and calculate parlay payouts.
The Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing for Sports Bettors
A practical guide to the Kelly Criterion — the mathematically optimal formula for sizing your bets based on edge and bankroll.
5 Devig Methods Compared: Which One Should You Use?
A deep dive into Equal Margin, Proportional, Shin, Odds Ratio, and Logarithmic devig methods — when each works best.
Bayesian Odds: Combining Market Lines With Your Model
How to use Bayesian inference to blend sharp market odds with your own probability model for better betting decisions.