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Bayesian Odds

Combine market odds with your model using Bayesian inference for posterior probabilities

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Sport & Bet Type
Market Odds
American odds
American odds
e.g. -3.5 or +7
Model Inputs
Your model's win probability
Available Odds
Best available moneyline
Posterior Probabilities
B

Enter market odds and model probability to see Bayesian posterior

Settings▼
About Bayesian Odds

This calculator combines a sharp market line (prior) with your model's output (evidence) using Bayesian inference. Win probability uses a Beta-Binomial conjugate prior. Spread uses a precision-weighted Gaussian posterior. The result is a posterior probability that balances market wisdom with your model's edge. Adjust the Market/Model weights in Settings to control how much you trust each source.