Player Prop Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation for player props with sport-specific distributions and fair odds
Read the guide →This calculator uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of player prop outcomes. It generates thousands of random samples from sport-specific statistical distributions, then computes over/under probabilities and fair odds for any betting line.
How it works: You provide a projection (your expected value for the stat) and the sportsbook's betting line. The simulator draws samples from the appropriate distribution — Gamma for continuous stats like yards, Poisson for discrete counts like TDs, Negative Binomial for overdispersed counts like receptions, and Lognormal for right-skewed stats like rushing yards for non-primary rushers.
Fair odds represent the break-even price with zero vig. If a sportsbook offers better odds than the fair price shown here, the bet has positive expected value according to your projection. The fair odds table shows how probabilities shift across nearby lines.